Since the time period has passed in which a post I wrote analyzing whether WI would fail cascade would be relevant has passed I am now posting this piece in its' stead, about the current state of the alliance and whether it will go on.
Let's start with the blindingly obvious: WI has not escaped unscathed. From a starting membership of over 3200 we lost 500 players even before the first corp left. While I am hesitant to use the phrase "cutting out the dead wood" since it always precedes a fail cascade, it's pretty clear that these individuals were not going to be incredibly useful in a real fight.
About a week or so ago the first two corps left at the same time. They were not core corps, and one of them was apparently having something of a civil war with itself; nevertheless, this opened the flood gates and at last count a total of 5 corps have left, including 2 core corps. At this point I have to frankly admit that if WI survives, it will not be the same alliance that I joined. Mmembership is currently around 1500.
WI goes on, however; current orders are to deploy to ROIR and capital and subcapital trains have been moving multiple times per day, so it is clear that the (remaining) leadership has no intention at this time of leaving the Northern Coalition, though questions as to whether it might fold into an existing alliance, and certainly whether we have nearly enough members left to justify holding geminate, are uncertain to me.
On a personal level, the corp I am in was one of those core corporations that has left and is moving to empire. I, of course, am looking for a new corp. I'm applying to a few corps in Razor first, since I've been unhappy about the lack of communication from leadership during the space-losing process and because I don't want to join a corp only to have it leave the next day. If I can't get in one of the 3 or 4 that I'm interested in quickly I'll try for LSJV in WI, since it would be proof against my corp leaving the alliance again (Tomcat, the alliance leader, is in LSJV).
I'm actually a little burned out on EVE and would maybe like to take a break for a couple weeks. But, well, there's a war on and all.