IT vs NC day 2: Situation update and speculation

An uneventul day today. We locked down x-7 with about 700 pilots and basically spent the rest of the day looking for something to do. In terms of kills and losses there was practically nothing, with us killing three capitals, a pair of T3 ships and a pos, and losing a number of battleships to bombers. As far as strategic objectives go, we repped a technetium mining pos in x-7.

Also, we used 200 battleships and 3 titans to break up a small gate camp in ec-.

I have to admit, the war so far is not what I had expected. My impression was that it was supposed to be a massive, coordinated attack designed to steamroll the NC, but instead things are starting off very slowly. Our ability to lock down x-7 means that the enemy needs the situation to evolve, which it will. Molle is reluctant to commit capitals to a fight due to the lag issues and will therefore be having capital pilots switch to battleships, which might get them enough numbers to put up a fight. In addition, Atlas and Cult of War are now deploying to the east and will be opening a front there so IT can at least undock while we're busy with that.


And now, speculation. There's been a lot of hurf durf on the forums by armchair analysts about how numbers, morale or home field advantate will result in one side or the other Winning For Certain. Out in the real internet spaceship world though, the most critical issue by far is Dominion lag, and since that can affect either side the outcome of the war is very much uncertain.

Remember y-2? PL lost hundreds of billions of isk worth of capitals and supercapitals, and after that the war was over. As long as it's possible to annihilate an enemy capital fleet while taking essentially no losses, the war will come down to whoever lags out less. If we manage to y-2 enemy cap fleets repeatedly we're almost certain to win. On the other hand, if we're on the receiving end more than a few times, well....