Sunday, November 30, 2014

Thinking about trade 4: It's happening?

So, I got the trade finder to run. Upon running it with only the first 150-ish items (out of about 3600), and only using amarr and jita as buy/sell systems, and only taking the top 10 results, it produced this:

As a sanity check I went to amarr and jita, found the real prices of the items and the quantities I would really buy, and got this:

As expected the quantities are pretty badly off, but the tool has successfully identified profitable trades and even put them in more or less the correct order. I'm calling this a win.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Thinking about trade 3: In which I build a list of items the easy way

Turns out my shell service wasn't banned from eve-central after all. The issue was a bug which made it look exactly as though it was -- complete with realistic timeouts on connection attempts.

Anyhoo, I'm trying to build a list of item types which are worth trading. My eventual plan, if I can get it to work, is to move items between trade hubs, which is a high-volume, low-margin proposition, so I've decided somewhat arbitrarily that I can ignore any item which Jita moves less than a billion isk worth of per day. We know The Equation can be off by at least a factor of 9, so I'm having it drop items it thinks move less than 100m per day.

Which turns out to be quite a lot of them. My list of items with market groups, minus blueprints, comes out at around 9700 items. Watching the process run, I'm expecting the number it thinks are worth trading to be less than half of that.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Thinking about trade 2: A list of typeIDs which can be found on the market

This is a list of all typeIDs which can be found on the market, taken from the latest static dump. It was very hard to get, so I may as well share.

In other news, I've gotten a free shell service banned from using the eve-central API. Which is exactly why I wasn't using my home IP.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Thinking about trade

I'm very lazy. I would never be able to compare hundreds of item types every day or maintain hundreds of buy and/or sell orders. But there's a lot of money in trade, so I keep thinking about it, trying to find an easy way to do it.

It would be easy to write a program that uses eve-central data to compare item prices in different market hubs. However, if you only look at prices, all the program's top results  would be very expensive items, like capital ships and deadspace modules. Eve-central doesn't track how many units are sold per day, so it's impossible to calculate profit potential.

And then I thought, "or is it"? Eve-central does track how many units of an item are on the market, and I'll bet there's a correlation between how many units are on the market and how many units are sold per day.

Of course, the market being what it is, there will never be a particularly strong correlation -- but it doesn't have to be strong. It just has to tell me that moving a bunch of nocxium at a profit of 10 isk per unit is more profitable than moving a single unit of whatever at a profit of one million per unit.

So I took a sample of item types and blah blah spreadsheets and quadratic regression blah and got this:

The sample size is way too small, but I can always go back and redo the equation with better numbers. The point is that it more or less works and I can tell how many units are being sold to within about an order of magnitude.

Next step? Sorcery.

Friday, November 14, 2014

Added a little something to the spreadsheet

Completely automated. I should have learned to import from eve-central a long time ago.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

New spreadsheet: Done

It's a lot simpler than the last one, at least from a user's perspective. Behind the scenes it's all pulling prices from eve-central and being like =IF(OR(B$54=" ",B$55=" "),0,(ROUNDUP((1-B$55/100)*HLOOKUP(B$54,$B$31:$Z$51,2,0))))

With that done, now I have to wait for my refining skills for those ores to all be level 5 before I can build anything. That's 25 days out.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Apparently it's important to have ME10 on capital blueprints

Somebody poked me and got me to look at the numbers, and now I'm - maybe - getting back into capital manufacturing.

Thing is, though, I was working on the new spreadsheet and compared minerals required for three ME9 blueprints - archon, chimera, nidhoggur - to the minerals required for those same blueprints with optimal ME on my old spreadsheet. The difference was 10%.

That seemed horribly wrong. So I compared everything and found there were two reasons for it.

First, carriers post-crius use slightly more components.

Second, ME10 now makes a huge difference. Under the old system, the last material level would save you one or two components. Under Crius, every component the ship uses 8-10 of at perfect ME it uses one more of at ME9, which in an archon is half the components. In ships that use more components, like dreadnaughts, the ME10 effect is smaller but still significant, as you can see below.

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Industry Contributor: October Report


So far so good. This was probably my most passive month in eve so far. The most time I spent was 6 hours was re-setting up my eighteen planets for P2- with 2 extractors, 4 basic processors, 2 advanced procesors, launchpad, storage and 6 harvester heads on each extractor. Maybe it sounds little bit like rocket science, but anybody who does this type of work will understand it -- the purpose was to get the best passive setup for 14 day cycles tested and calculated.

The trade market finished about 20 orders which I haven't had a chance to replace yet. I intend to hang on to them and make few little improvments if I get an afternoon or two in next few months. A few meta 4 items did sell for good profit, so completely happy how things with margins are working out.

I also got one of my capital ship BPOs on ME 10, and am now getting PE in place.

Parasoja's Notes:

I logged in even less than he did this month.