Yesterday a station came out of reinforced in vale. We formed up about 700 guys and got in system first. When the station came out, hostiles jumped in 154 supercapitals.
We can't compete with that, not even close. So what happens now?
1. The NC dies. Russians take all the technetium, have infinite supercarriers and take over all of 0.0 so they can macro and RMT in peace. Eve dies.
2. The offensive stops at some point. We will keep fighting, of course, as long as we have the will; the dominion system makes taking defended sov difficult, and if we can save one timer out of 5-ish the enemy have to start over. PL's contract will end at some point (rumored to be only for geminate and vale) and it's possible the enemy offensive will run out of steam.
3. DC goes all-in on our side. I don't think even this would actually give us enough supers to go toe to toe, but it would let us offer much more resistance. Maybe even enough to stabilize the front lines.
As for me, now is the time for a partial evacuation to minimize risk exposure. Combat ships and fittings stay, of course; so does isk-making infrastructure, which I keep in one station and ensure it can fit in a carrier. Capitals other than the evacuation carrier, ships I'm not using and other high value assets all go to lowsec.
I'm doing this prematurely, mind you; but prematurely is the only appropriate time and it's as much a psychological thing as it has to do with the actual value of the assets assets. Being prepared to lose space, knowing that you can do it in a controlled manner and that you have resources to fall back on, enables you to face impending doom without losing perspective; whichever way the war goes, it goes according to plan.
What I actually suspect will happen is that the DRF will take geminate and vale, PL's contract will end and NC leadership will remove their heads from their asses and turn all that technetium into supercarriers and/or hire PL.