Sunday, October 14, 2012

Threat assessment: Miniluv

A couple days ago I heard something about "goons killing a bunch of freighters".

Today the tl;dr is up on mittens.com and reads: A gank squad has killed 200 freighters since August.

So how much danger am I in?

First, frequency. 200 freighters in about 2-ish months is about 100 freighters per month. For the purpose of this post, we assume that every freighter passing through jita 4-4 has an equal chance of being ganked.

The equation for my risk, therefore, is: Number of freighters which pass through jita per month, divided by 100, multiplied by the number of times I pass through jita per month.

To find the first value, I watched the jita undock for 3 minutes. 14 freighters undocked. I divided this number by 2 because my observation was done at a peak time.  7*20*24*30 = 100,000 freighters per month, divided by 100 equals a 1/1,000 chance of being ganked per run. I do about 40 runs per month, so my risk is 1/25.

My maximum cargo plus hull price is about 2.7 billion, so during an average month I will lose 108 million isk to ganks.

Note: This assumes that the gankers target jita, which apparently they don't.

3 comments:

  1. Your chances of being ganked are even less than that. They first and foremost target freighters carrying tens of billions of ISK. I expect that even if they are primarily targeting freighters for fun, they are much more likely to target massively overladen freighters, both for profit and for killboard kudos.

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  2. Uedama is not the Jita/Amarr pipe. get a map.

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  3. Jita/Dodixie and Jita/Hek go through Uedama.
    Jita/Amarr goes through Niarja.

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