Sunday, October 14, 2012

Threat assessment: Miniluv

A couple days ago I heard something about "goons killing a bunch of freighters".

Today the tl;dr is up on and reads: A gank squad has killed 200 freighters since August.

So how much danger am I in?

First, frequency. 200 freighters in about 2-ish months is about 100 freighters per month. For the purpose of this post, we assume that every freighter passing through jita 4-4 has an equal chance of being ganked.

The equation for my risk, therefore, is: Number of freighters which pass through jita per month, divided by 100, multiplied by the number of times I pass through jita per month.

To find the first value, I watched the jita undock for 3 minutes. 14 freighters undocked. I divided this number by 2 because my observation was done at a peak time.  7*20*24*30 = 100,000 freighters per month, divided by 100 equals a 1/1,000 chance of being ganked per run. I do about 40 runs per month, so my risk is 1/25.

My maximum cargo plus hull price is about 2.7 billion, so during an average month I will lose 108 million isk to ganks.

Note: This assumes that the gankers target jita, which apparently they don't.


  1. Your chances of being ganked are even less than that. They first and foremost target freighters carrying tens of billions of ISK. I expect that even if they are primarily targeting freighters for fun, they are much more likely to target massively overladen freighters, both for profit and for killboard kudos.

  2. Uedama is not the Jita/Amarr pipe. get a map.

  3. Jita/Dodixie and Jita/Hek go through Uedama.
    Jita/Amarr goes through Niarja.